The Deir al-Zor Raid

I've said nothing about the Israeli raid somewhere in the region of Deir al-Zor, Syria, on September 6. I assume anyone with an interest in the region has read everything, or most things, that have come out so far. There are some real puzzles here, not to mention a couple of conspiracy theories. There may even have been some deliberate diversions: I've heard it suggested that the fuel tanks dropped just inside the Turkish border may be something along that line.

I'm not going to try, at this point, to catalogue all the versions. I will, however, suggest a few observations for those who've been following the issue:

1. Only peripheral attention has been paid to the fact that the Israeli raid, if that's what it was, took place at night. This added to the surprise and, presumably, cut collateral casualties, but it also suggests that the Israelis were very confident of their target, either because it was too large or too easily identified by other means to miss.

2. Many have combented on the silence of the rest of the Arab world. But it is so pronounced that repeating the observation is not out of hand. So far as I can tell the only people who compalined are Syria (necessary, but without detail), Turkey (routine if they weren't consulted, diplomatic if they were complicit), and North Korea (which, of course, is totally incongruous unless they were involved.) Most of all, though this is a classic case of the dog that didn't bark in the nighttime.

3. It might not have been nuclear. There has been little evidence of Syrian nuclear ambitions; they have a relatively sophisticated chemical program, however, and Janes recently reported a deadly accidcent involving nerve gas in July killing both Syrian and Iranian military personnel. But if it was nuclear, it gave Israel a way of telegraphing a message to Iran without directly taking on the Iranians.

4. The Ship. Most reports indicate a North Korean ship that docked at Tartus was suspected of carrying nuclear materials. How would Israel know this? So far as I know satellite technology could not detect low-level radiation in a ship's cargo, so this presumes a close-up evaluation of the ship. Either by close approach by Israeli naval or commercial vessels (which should be obvious to the North Koreans) or agents on the ground either in Egypt (assuming the ship passed through the Suez Canal: easiest way of monitoring it fairly close to the cargo) or in Tartus itself. Either would be too sensitive a sources-and-methods question.

5. The conspiracy theories. John Bolton has been downright all over the media on this one, seeing a way to discredit the North Korean nuclear deal. Some are saying the whole thing is a setup, either to abort the North Korean nuke deal or to threaten Iran's nuclear ambitions. But in either case it's hard to see what Israel gains, since actually relations with Syria were showing signs of quiet, back-channel improvement. While neocons and others may be trying to exploit this issue, Israel took a big chance and seems to have pulled it off.

6. Right after the first reports started coming in one of the Israeli publications (which I apparently didn't clip into my Google Notebook and can't now locate) reported Israeli military officials giving each other high fives for an unknown reason during a Rosh Hashona party. The only problem is the report appeared almost a week before Rosh Hashona. You figure it out. Don't YOU celebrate New Year's Eve a week early? Sorry I can't now locate the report, but I'm sure it was an Israeli report, which means it wouldn't have been a simple mistake. Disinformation? Cover story? Plant to suggest success? (The Syrians say the Israelis didn't hit anything.)

7. Final thoughts: this was really touchy. That doesn't mean it was nuclear, but whatever it was, nobody wants to make a big deal of it. Too sensitive, obviously. And that deserves attention.