Coffeehouse Gossip: Mubarak Not Dead Yet

Although this is Petraeus/Crocker Day 1, I'm starting off The Estimate blog with a little of our traditional "Coffeehouse Gossip": Namely the rumors that were circulating in Egypt at the end of August that Husni Mubarak was either dead or seriously ill. Such rumors have circulated before, of course, and with Mubarak turning 80 next year, with no officially designated successor, uncertainty about the health of the man who has run Egypt for nearly 26 years (October 6 will mark that anniversary) is natural.

The semi-offiicial take is here in the English Al-Ahram Weekly, which does have the temerity to suggest that Mubarak should have spoken publicly to the nation rather than simply making a public appearance and giving an interview to Al-Ahram.

The rumors seem to have been various: that Mubarak had died, or that he was clinically dead and being kept alive until the succession could be settled, or that he had gone to France for medical treatment (as he has on earlier occasions).

"Rumors always come to the fore in August," Mubarak told the interviewer, while blaming the whole thing on the Muslim Brotherhood. Clearly, the government was nervous about the rumors and Mubarak moved quickly to show he was still alive. But since he didn't give a televised speech, was merely shown visiting an industrial town, rumors that his memory is faltering or that he is ill aren't completely dispelled.

Following the campaign to dispel the rumors (which have also been blamed on the US Ambassador, though the Embassy has firmly denied responsibility), it has also been reported that the ruling National Democratic Party has reached a "consensus" of keeping Mubarak as its Secretary-General; there'd been rumors that the job might go to son Gamal, a necessary step if Gamal is going to succeed his father. But to do it now would probably fuel the rumors about the elder Mubarak's health.

Since the downfall of Abd al-Halim Abu Ghazala in 1989, there has been no clear number two in Egypt. Intelligence chief Umar Suleiman has a lot of power, but to most Egyptians he is a shadowy figure; only in the past couple of years has his picture appeared in the media. Gamal Mubarak is well-connected with (and a member of) Egypt's young, nouveau-riche entrepreneurial class, but he lacks the links to the Army and security forces that have been de rigeur in the past. Husni Mubarak probably can make Gamal his chosen heir if he lives long enough, but the jitters just seen are a reminder that he may not be able to count on that.